河北师范大学学报—

探索流域城镇化发展的时空格局演化特征及规律，可以为提升流域城镇化质量和促进流域城镇化健康、持续、高质量发展提供科学参考.以汾河流域36个县（市）为研究单元，构建汾河流域县域城镇化发展综合评价指标体系，将数理统计方法、探索性空间数据分析（ESDA）与地理探测器分析相结合，对2000—2018年汾河流域县域城镇化发展的时空格局演变特征及影响因素展开研究.主要研究结论如下：1）汾河流域城镇化发展整体水平明显提升，但各县（市）的城镇化水平绝对差异逐渐增大，而相对差异逐渐减小；2）流域内各县（市）城镇化发展水平空间分异格局明显，且随时间变化存在明显的时空演变，逐步形成了以太原市区、孝义市、临汾市区为中心的流域城镇化发展的核心区及文水县、汾西县和万荣县等形成的城镇化发展的边缘区；3）流域内大部分县（市）的城镇化发展没有明显的空间相关性，主要表现为以太原市区为核心的周边县（市）区域形成的高高集聚及岚县、翼城和周边县（市）形成的低低集聚；4）资源开发与产业结构、经济发展水平、交通区位和政策等对汾河流域县域城镇化发展的时空格局演变具有重要影响.由地理探测器的定量分析可知，经济发展和政策投资是影响汾河流域县域城镇化发展时空格局演变的主要驱动机制.在此基础上，提出了缩小汾河流域县域城镇化发展差距、促进汾河流域县域城镇化协调发展的对策和建议.

Abstract：

Exploring the spatiotemporal pattern evolution characteristics and laws of urbanization development in river basin can provide scientific reference for improving the quality of urbanization and promoting healthy,sustainable and high-quality development of urbanization in river basin.Taking 36 counties as the research unit,based on the construction of comprehensive evaluation index system of county urbanization development,the temporal and spatial pattern evolution characteristics and influencing factors of county urbanization development in Fenhe River Basin from 2000 to 2018 were analyzed by using the combination of mathematical statistics,exploratory spatial data analysis(ESDA) and Geodetector.The main research conclusions were as follows:1) The overall development level of urbanization in Fenhe River Basin increased significantly,but the absolute difference of urbanization level between counties gradually increased,while the relative difference gradually decreased. 2) The spatial differentiation pattern of urbanization development level of counties in the basin was obvious,and there was obvious temporal and spatial evolution with time,and gradually formed the core area of urbanization development in this basin centered on Taiyuan urban area,Xiaoyi city and Linfen urban area,as well as the fringe area of urbanization development including Wenshui,Fenxi and Wanrong counties.3) The urbanization development level of most counties in the basin had no obvious spatial correlation.The spatial correlation was mainly reflected in the surrounding counties with the provincial capital Taiyuan as the core,forming highhigh agglomeration and lowlow agglomeration of Lan county,Yicheng and their surrounding counties.4) Resource development and industrial structure,economic development level,traffic location and policies had important impacts on spatiotemporal pattern evolution of county urbanization development in Fenhe River Basin.Quantitative analysis based on Geodetector showed that economic development and policy investment were the main driving mechanisms affecting the spatiotemporal pattern evolution of county urbanization in Fenhe River Basin.Based on these conclusions,some countermeasures and suggestions were put forward to narrow the gap of county urbanization development and promote the coordinated development of county urbanization in Fenhe River Basin.

关键词

关键词： 城镇化；时空格局；县域；汾河流域；地理探测器

Key words： urbanization ; temporal and spatial pattern ; county level ; Fenhe River Basin ; Geodetector

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