河北师范大学学报—

期刊信息

刊名：河北师范大学学报（自然科学版）Journal of Hebei Normal University (Natural Science)
主办：河北师范大学
ISSN： 1000-5854
CN： 13-1061/N
中国科技核心期刊
中国期刊方阵入选期刊
中国高校优秀科技期刊
华北优秀期刊
河北省优秀科技期刊

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河北雄安新区近50a降水变化特征

马凤莲^1,2

刘园园³

李春强^1,4

（1.河北省气象与生态环境重点实验室，河北石家庄 050021; 2.河北雄安新区气象局，河北雄安 071700； 3.河北省承德市气象局，河北承德 067000； 4.河北省气象科学研究所，河北石家庄 050021）
DOI： 10.13763/j.cnki.jhebnu.nse.202205013

Variation Characteristics of Precipitation in Recent 50 Years in Xiongan New Area,Hebei Province

MA Fenglian^1，2,LIU Yuanyuan³,LI Chunqiang^1，4

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摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于雄安新区区域内3个国家气象观测站的多年气象观测资料,采用线性回归分析、Mann-Kendall突变检验、Morlet小波分析和Pearson相关系数法,系统分析了雄安新区近50a不同时间尺度下降水量的变化趋势、突变特征以及降水量的周期变化规律.结果表明：1）雄安新区年降水量呈显著减小趋势,且存在较明显的年代际变化；春季、秋季降水量呈波动增加趋势,夏季、冬季降水量则呈减少趋势；年平均降水量为499.9 mm,夏季降水量占全年降水量的70.1 %；2）年降水量存在3～5，9，16～18 a特征时间尺度周期振荡,9，16～18 a时间尺度的周期振荡贯穿整个研究时段，近50 a雄安新区大致经历了3次干湿交替,降水偏少期较降水丰沛期持续时间长；3）雄安新区一日最大降水量最大值为263.4 mm、最小值为29.8 mm，日最大降水量出现在5～10月,其中6～8月出现次数最多,降水量时空分布不均特征明显；4）雨日呈显著减少趋势,平均每10 a减少5.3 d,日降水量≥0.1 mm和日降水量≥5.0 mm日数呈增加趋势,日降水量≥50.0 mm日数呈减少趋势；5）春季、秋季降水量年际变化呈现由减少趋势转为增多趋势的突变特征,其突变点分别为1978年和1990年,在主汛期前后仍需关注暴雨灾害风险.全面认识当地气候特征可为雄安新区建设以及防灾减灾提供技术支撑.

Abstract：

In order to master the climate characteristics of Xiongan New Area more scientifically，based on the multi-year meteorological observation data from three national meteorological stations in Xiongan New Area,statistical analysis methods such as regression analysis,Mann-Kendall mutation test,Morlet wavelet method and Pearson correlation coefficient were used,and change trend,abrupt change characteristics and change of precipitation cycles were analyzed systematically at different time scales in recent 50 years in Xiongan New Area.The results showed that:1) The annual precipitation in Xiongan New Area showed significant decreasing trend,and there were obvious interdecadal changes.The precipitation in spring and autumn showed fluctuating and increasing trend,and the precipitation in summer and winter decreased.The average annual precipitation was 499.9 mm,and summer precipitation accounted for 70.1% of annual precipitation.2) The annual precipitation presented periodic oscillation at characteristic time scales of 3~5,9 and 16~18 a,and the periodic oscillation of 9,16~18 a time scales run through the whole research period.During the past 50 a,Xiongan New Area experienced three dry-wet cycles,the duration of less precipitation period was longer than that of abundant precipitation period.3) The maximum daily precipitation in Xiongan New Area was 263.4 mm,and the minimum was 29.8 mm.The maximum daily precipitation usually occured from May to October of each year,in which the frequency of occurrence was the highest from June to August.There were obvious uneven characteristics at spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation.4) The number of rainfall days decreased significantly,with average decrease of 5.3 d per 10 a.The number of days ≥0.1 mm and ≥5.0 mm increased,the number of days ≥50.0 mm decreased.5） The interannual changes of precipitation in spring and autumn showed sudden change from decreasing trend to increasing.The sudden change points were in 1978 and 1990 respectively.It is necessary to pay attention to the risk of rainstorm disaster before and after the main flood season.The comprehensive understanding of local climate characteristics can provide technical support for the construction of Xiongan New Area as well as disaster prevention and reduction.

关键词

关键词： 雄安新区；降水量；降水日数； MannKendall突变检验

Key words： Xiongan New Area ; precipitation ; precipitation days ; Mann-Kendall mutation test

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