期刊信息

  • 刊名： 河北师范大学学报（自然科学版）Journal of Hebei Normal University (Natural Science)
  • 主办： 河北师范大学
  • ISSN： 1000-5854
  • CN： 13-1061/N
  • 中国科技核心期刊
  • 中国期刊方阵入选期刊
  • 中国高校优秀科技期刊
  • 华北优秀期刊
  • 河北省优秀科技期刊

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华北地区近65a气候变化及其与相关因子关系分析

  • 聊城大学 环境与规划学院, 山东 聊城 252000
  • DOI： 10.13763/j.cnki.jhebnu.nse.202105005

Analysis on Climate Change and Related Factors in North China in Recent 65 Years

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于1951-2015年中国华北地区16个常规地面站的观测资料，利用线性倾向估计、克里金插值法等方法研究了近65a中国华北地区的气温及降水的年度和季度变化情况，并与厄尔尼诺/拉尼娜、太阳黑子进行了相关性分析.结果表明，近65a华北地区气温降水分别呈波动上升和下降的趋势，太阳黑子数与气温、降水的变化呈现出一定的相关性，且表现为负相关，厄尔尼诺/拉尼娜也对气候变化有一定的影响，厄尔尼诺事件发生年增温且降水减少，拉尼娜事件发生年降温且降水增加，其中通过降水量的变化对预测厄尔尼诺/拉尼娜现象有一定的帮助，这为华北地区旱涝灾害预警提供了科学依据.

Abstract：

Based on the data of 16 conventional ground stations in North China from 1951 to 2015,the annual and seasonal changes of temperature and precipitation in North China in recent 65 years were studied, using methods of linear trend estimation and Kriging interpolation.The relationships between variations in temperature and precipitation with El Niño/La Niña and numbers of sunspots were analyzed. The results showed that in the past 65 years, air temperature and precipitation in North China fluctuated upward and downward respectively. The number of sunspots showed certain negative correlation with temperature and precipitation.El Niño/La Niña also had certain impact on climate change. The annual temperature increased and precipitation decreasd in El Niño events,and annual temperatured decreased and precipitation increased in La Niña events.Among them, the change of precipitation was helpful to predict El Nino/La Niña phenomenon,which provided scientific basis for early warning of drought and flood disasters in North China.

关键词

关键词： 华北地区 ; 气温 ; 降水 ; 厄尔尼诺/拉尼娜 ; 太阳活动
Key words： North China ; temperature ; precipitation ; El Niño/La Niña ; solar activity

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