期刊信息

  • 刊名: 河北师范大学学报(哲学社会科学版)Journal of Hebei Normal University (Philosophy and Social Sciences Edition)
  • 主办: 河北师范大学
  • ISSN: 1000-5587
  • CN: 13-1029/C
  • 该刊被以下数据库收录:
  • AMI综合评价(A刊)核心期刊
  • RCCSE中国核心学术期刊
  • 中国期刊方阵入选期刊
  • 全国百强社会科学学报
  • 中国人民大学“复印报刊资料”重要转载来源期刊

经济政策不确定性与城投债 ——基于发行规模和信用利差的实证分析

收稿日期: 2021-10-5
  • 作者单位: (1. 河北金融学院 金融与投资学院,河北 保定 071051;2. 中央民族大学 经济学院,北京100081)
  • 起止页码: 119 - 127

Economic Policy Uncertainty and Urban Investment Bonds: An Empirical Analysis Based on Issuance Scale and Credit Spread

摘要/Abstract

摘要:

根据2008年至今地方政府融资平台相关监管政策的变化周期,以及2013年至2020年城投债发行市场与信用利差的省级月度面板数据情况,可以探究经济政策不确定性对城投债一级市场发行规模和二级市场信用利差的影响。研究发现,随着经济政策不确定性的增加,城投债发行规模显著增加,且城投债信用利差显著扩大。对不同地区城投债的进一步研究发现,在经济政策不确定的环境下,东部地区城投债规模扩张程度更大;高评级城投债的信用利差在西部地区增加幅度更大,而低评级城投债在东部地区增加幅度更大。因此,为了防范因经济政策不确定性造成的融资平台公司债务扩张和融资成本升高,应尽可能保持经济政策连续性与渐进性。首先应加强市场调研以密切掌控实体经济发展新动态;其次要增进财政、货币与金融监管政策的协调配合;最后在经济强劲复苏的背景下可适当缩减地方政府专项债规模以节省政策空间,并适度创新专项债使用范围以支持融资平台公司发展。

Abstract:

According to the change cycle of the relevant regulatory policies of local government financing platform from 2008 to the present, and the provincial monthly panel data of urban investment bond issuance market and credit spread from 2013 to 2020, this paper explores the influence of economic policy uncertainty on the issuance scale of urban investment bonds in primary market and credit spread in secondary market. It is found that with the increase of economic policy uncertainty, the issuance scale of urban investment bonds increases significantly, and the credit spread of urban investment bonds expands notably. A further study on urban investment bonds in different regions shows that the scale of urban investment bonds in the eastern region expands to a greater extent under uncertain economic policies. Spreads on highrated bonds have increased more in the western region, while those on lowrated bonds have increased more in the eastern region. Therefore, in order to prevent the debt expansion and financing cost increase of financing platform companies caused by the uncertainty of economic policies, continuity and gradualism of economic policies should be maintained as much as possible. Firstly, market research should be strengthened to control the development of the real economy. Secondly, the coordination of fiscal, monetary and financial regulatory policies should be enhanced. Finally, with strong economic recovery, the scale of local government special debt could be appropriately reduced to save policy space, and the use of special local government bonds could be expanded moderately to support the development of financing platforms.