期刊信息
- 刊名： 河北师范大学学报（哲学社会科学版）Journal of Hebei Normal University (Philosophy and Social Sciences Edition)
- 主办： 河北师范大学
- ISSN： 1000-5587
- CN： 13-1029/C
- 该刊被以下数据库收录：
- AMI综合评价（A刊）核心期刊
- RCCSE中国核心学术期刊
- 中国期刊方阵入选期刊
- 全国百强社会科学学报
- 中国人民大学“复印报刊资料”重要转载来源期刊
中美战略竞争的逻辑与前景
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作者单位：1.中国社会科学院 亚太与全球战略研究院，北京 100007；2.中国人民大学 国际关系学院，北京 100872 -
起止页码：131 - 142页
Logic and Prospect of SinoUS Strategic Competition
摘要/Abstract
随着中国经济持续快速发展和美国经济长期低速增长，美国逐步改变了对中国的认知并几次调整对华政策，中美关系逐渐进入战略竞争阶段。中美战略竞争是美国主动挑起并不断推进对华敌视政策的结果，而根本动因在于战略预阻，即美国预先阻止出现中国对其霸权地位的挑战，但不同时期的预阻目标和切入点有所不同。小布什时期，美国的目标是预阻中国成为美国的挑战者，认为中国的“软肋”是台湾问题；奥巴马时期，美国的目标是预阻中国继续提升影响力和动摇美国的霸权地位，认为中国的“软肋”是台湾问题和南海问题；特朗普时期，美国的目标是预阻中国继续扩大影响力并挑战美国的霸权，认为中国的“软肋”是台湾问题和对美贸易依赖。中美战略竞争的发展逻辑取决于两国政策互动，21世纪初美国谋求对华战略竞争但被中国的灵活政策化解，2008年全球金融危机之后美国对华战略竞争也因中国积极的应对政策和有效措施未能实现其既定目标，特朗普时期的对华战略竞争使中美激烈博弈延续至今。在四种中美关系发展前景中，中美战略竞争有可能保持在可控范围或失去控制。中国的最佳目标选项是争取使之保持可控，基本思路是以我为主、实力为本、策略为重、聚焦美国、着眼世界。
With continuous rapid development of China’s economy and the longterm lowspeed growth of American economy, the United States has gradually changed its understanding of China and adjusted its China policy several times. China reacted to the policy changes and strategic pressure from the US, resulting in strategic competition between China and the US. The fundamental motivation of the US lies in strategic preresistance, that is, the US prevents China from challenging its hegemonic position in advance, but the preresistance objectives and entry points are different in different periods. During George W. Bush, the US goal was to prevent China from becoming a challenger to the United States, and believed that China’s “soft spot” was the Taiwan Question. During the Obama era, the US goal was to prevent China from continuing to enhance its influence and shake the hegemonic position of the United States. It believed that China’s “soft spots” were the Taiwan Question and the South China Sea Question. During the Trump period, the goal of the United States was to prevent China from expanding its influence and challenging American hegemony. It believed that China’s “soft spots” were the Taiwan Question and China’s trade dependence on the United States. The development logic of SinoUS strategic competition depends on the policy interaction between the two countries. At the beginning of the 21st century, the United States sought strategic competition with China, but it was resolved by China’s flexible policies. After the global financial crisis in 2008, the US strategic competition with China failed to achieve its set goals because of China’s active response policies and effective measures. The Trumpera strategic competition with China continued till today in the fierce game between the two countries. Among the four prospects, SinoUS strategic competition can be controllable or uncontrollable. As for China, the optimal target is to make it controllable, and the main path is to give priority to China, strengthen China’s power, stress tactics, focus on the US and think globally.