期刊信息

  • 刊名: 河北师范大学学报(哲学社会科学版)Journal of Hebei Normal University (Philosophy and Social Sciences Edition)
  • 主办: 河北师范大学
  • ISSN: 1000-5587
  • CN: 13-1029/C
  • 该刊被以下数据库收录:
  • AMI综合评价(A刊)核心期刊
  • RCCSE中国核心学术期刊
  • 中国期刊方阵入选期刊
  • 全国百强社会科学学报
  • 中国人民大学“复印报刊资料”重要转载来源期刊

“一带一路”沿线国家债务违约风险的识别与防范

收稿日期: 2019-10-11
  • 作者单位: 中国社会科学院 财经战略研究院, 北京 100028
  • 起止页码: 127 - 134

Identification and Prevention of Default Risks of Countries along the Belt and Road Routes

摘要/Abstract

摘要:

目前,中国对于"一带一路"沿线国家的基础设施投资项目呈现稳健上升趋势,有力地巩固了"一带一路"倡议框架下地缘合作的经济基础,但也因此遭遇了不断涌现的主权债务违约风险问题。通过构建"一带一路"沿线国家债务违约风险的评价体系,研究发现,人均GDP、经济增长的波动性、通货膨胀率和负债率是影响"一带一路"沿线国家债务违约风险的主要因素。评价结果显示,以色列、文莱、立陶宛、斯洛伐克和新加坡的债务违约风险最低,也门、乌克兰、吉尔吉斯斯坦、尼泊尔、不丹和摩尔多瓦的债务违约风险最高。因此,应制定差异化的投资战略、引入第三方市场合作机制、推进重大基础设施项目的分阶段开发等,以防范应对债务违约风险,进一步增强债务投资项目可持续性。

Abstract:

At present, China's infrastructure investment projects along the Belt and Road routes show a steady upward trend, effectively consolidating the economic foundation of geopolitical cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative, but they also suffer from the emerging sovereign debt default risks and problems. This paper constructs an evaluation system for the default risks of the countries along the Belt and Road. It is found that the per capita GDP, the fluctuation of economic growth, the inflation rate, and the debt ratio are the main factors that affect the default risks. The results showed that Israel, Brunei, Lithuania, Slovakia and Singapore had the lowest risk of default, while Yemen, Ukraine, Kyrgyzstan, Nepal, Bhutan and Moldova had the highest risk. Therefore, this study puts forward some suggestions to prevent and deal with the risks of debt default and enhance the sustainability of debt investment projects, including formulating differentiated investment strategies, introducing third-party market cooperation mechanism, and promoting the phased development of major infrastructure projects.

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