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在线阅读 --哲学社会科学版 2020年1期《“一带一路”沿线国家债务违约风险的识别与防范》
“一带一路”沿线国家债务违约风险的识别与防范--[在线阅读]
张斌彬, 冯珺
中国社会科学院 财经战略研究院, 北京 100028
起止页码: 127--134页
DOI: 10.13763/j.cnki.jhebnu.psse.2020.01.013
摘要
目前,中国对于"一带一路"沿线国家的基础设施投资项目呈现稳健上升趋势,有力地巩固了"一带一路"倡议框架下地缘合作的经济基础,但也因此遭遇了不断涌现的主权债务违约风险问题。通过构建"一带一路"沿线国家债务违约风险的评价体系,研究发现,人均GDP、经济增长的波动性、通货膨胀率和负债率是影响"一带一路"沿线国家债务违约风险的主要因素。评价结果显示,以色列、文莱、立陶宛、斯洛伐克和新加坡的债务违约风险最低,也门、乌克兰、吉尔吉斯斯坦、尼泊尔、不丹和摩尔多瓦的债务违约风险最高。因此,应制定差异化的投资战略、引入第三方市场合作机制、推进重大基础设施项目的分阶段开发等,以防范应对债务违约风险,进一步增强债务投资项目可持续性。

Identification and Prevention of Default Risks of Countries along the Belt and Road Routes
ZHANG Binbin, FENG Jun
National Academy of Economic Strategy, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing 100028, China
Abstract:
At present, China's infrastructure investment projects along the Belt and Road routes show a steady upward trend, effectively consolidating the economic foundation of geopolitical cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative, but they also suffer from the emerging sovereign debt default risks and problems. This paper constructs an evaluation system for the default risks of the countries along the Belt and Road. It is found that the per capita GDP, the fluctuation of economic growth, the inflation rate, and the debt ratio are the main factors that affect the default risks. The results showed that Israel, Brunei, Lithuania, Slovakia and Singapore had the lowest risk of default, while Yemen, Ukraine, Kyrgyzstan, Nepal, Bhutan and Moldova had the highest risk. Therefore, this study puts forward some suggestions to prevent and deal with the risks of debt default and enhance the sustainability of debt investment projects, including formulating differentiated investment strategies, introducing third-party market cooperation mechanism, and promoting the phased development of major infrastructure projects.

收稿日期: 2019-10-11
基金项目:

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